Here's a bold prediction: the USD/JPY pair is unlikely to break above the 154.50 mark, at least not anytime soon. But here's where it gets interesting – while the US Dollar (USD) has shown a slightly firm upward momentum, potentially testing the 154.50 level, analysts from UOB Group, Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia, suggest that a decisive breakthrough is improbable. And this is the part most people miss: in the long term, a sharp surge in upward momentum could theoretically push the USD further toward 154.90, though this remains a speculative scenario.
24-HOUR VIEW: Last Thursday, the USD climbed to a high of 154.44. By Friday, when it hovered around 153.90, we noted that despite the seemingly excessive rise, the USD might still flirt with the 154.50 level before a pullback. We emphasized that to maintain this momentum, the USD needed to stay above 153.30, with minor support at 153.60. However, the currency traded between 153.63 and 154.41, closing nearly unchanged at 154.00 (-0.08%). Here’s the kicker: while upward momentum persists, a clear break above 154.50 remains unlikely. For today, watch for support levels at 153.90 and 153.65.
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Following the USD's surge last Thursday, we pointed out on Friday (October 31, spot at 153.90) that a sharp increase in momentum could drive the currency toward 154.90. Although momentum hasn't intensified further, we stand by this view as long as the 153.00 level (previously 152.50, now considered 'strong support') holds firm. But here's the controversial part: what if the USD does break above 154.50? Would it signal a broader shift in market dynamics, or is this just a temporary fluctuation? We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments – do you think the USD/JPY pair is poised for a breakthrough, or is this level a hard ceiling?
